Technology Spike

Technology Spike – What is it

Information Technology is doubling every 1 year to 18 months, everything that it touches is pulled into this cycle … so what does this mean for your personal life, business life and your career?

The Facts

Information Technology is doubling every 1 year to 18 months.
This means that every 30 years we become 1 billion times more advanced than we were at the start of that 30-year period.

1982 To 2013
oldcomputer NewApple
oldApple NewComputer

So if we graph this progression at a 30 year view we get a graph similar to the one shown below:
From 2 to 1.073 billion in 30 years
And your perception of the “growth” over this time … It’s amazing! All of a sudden, we are so far ahead – all the growth seems to be in the last few years.

If we look at any smaller point along this graph (say any 4-year period):

1982 – 1986 2008 – 2012
1980to1984 2006to2010
Growth Factor = 16 / 2 = 8 times Growth Factor = 1.073 Billion / 67 Million = 8 times

The relative change (your perception of the change) and shape of the graph is actually exactly the same – a factor of 8 times growth in any 4-year period.
This means that the person observing the changes doesn’t see a massive jump at the end. They only see a relatively minor increase over any 4-year period and can easily fool themselves into thinking, “We don’t need the latest and greatest thing.”

Indeed, if you look at any single year, there isn’t much movement at all. In fact, it is only a mere doubling. If you’re not watching for it, you could certainly dismiss it as not necessary.

In the next post we look at the traps most people fall into when assessing the future by looking at today.

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